962 FXUS61 KBUF 300700 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 258 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... THE PCPN THAT FORMED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE FINGER LAKES AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING OVER OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES...BUT MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST ARE FORMING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN LAKE HURON TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STAY WEST OF OUR AREA TODAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA MOVES UP THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THUS...WHILE THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT OUR AREA TODAY...IT WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN HELPING TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NEW YORK STATE LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE FA SHOULD STAY DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SINCE THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA IS JUST BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. THE GFS TRACKS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS STEADIER RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER TOWARD EVENING...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE NORTHING MORE THAN A COUPLE OF SHOWERS. THE REAL ACTION GETS UNDER WAY TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA APPROACH NEW YORK STATE. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH THE ADDED LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE FROM HPC SHOWS A GENERAL 2.0 TO 3.0 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SINCE THIS RAIN IS FORECAST TO FALL OVER AN 18 HOUR PERIOD...MOST OF THE MAJOR STREAMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN URBAN AREAS AND ALONG SMALL STREAMS IF THE PCPN IS CONCENTRATED OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME. BECAUSE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA...WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FA FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY...MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY 00Z THURSDAY. WILL STILL LEAVE IN A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL CANADIAN LOWS. BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL BC LOW WILL BE OVER QUEBEC...NO REAL IMPACT ON WESTERN NY...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE US WITH A FINE WEEKEND LASTING INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME IFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE REMAINS OF KATRINA WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY IN MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... AS KATRINA MOVES NORTHWARD WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AHEAD THE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO WATERS FROM NIAGARA RIVER TO SODUS BAY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE REST OF THE NEW YORK SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NYZ01>008-010>014-019>020-085 .MARINE...NONE $$ .SHORT TERM...TJP .LONG TERM...ZAFF .AVIATION...APB 747 FXUS63 KARX 300702 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 200 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE PCPN CHANCES WITH A SFC FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY...CIRRUS SHIELD FROM KATRINA HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF ILLINOIS...AND INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IA...BUT NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE NOW TROPICAL STORM SHOULD KEEP THESE HIGH CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH...A RATHER PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL/SFC LOW NEAR JAMES BAY CONTINUES TO BRING CLOUDS TO THE NORTHEAST MN AND FAR NORTHERN WI. SITTING INBETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WAS THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE HIGH PRESSURE WAS KEEPING THE SKIES CLEAR...AND ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...KEEPING THE BRUNT OF ITS IMPACT WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL AREA WILL STILL FEEL SOME EFFECT FROM THE SYSTEM. KATRINA WILL KEEP THE GULF CLOSED OFF FOR THE REGION...WITH THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ALL FUNNELING INTO THE DEPARTING TROPICAL SYSTEM. SO...AN ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE ONLY THE SATURATION IT BRINGS WITH IT TO WORK WITH. THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE DOWN DUE TO THE LACK OF A SOUTHERLY FETCH...WITH SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG EXPECTED. AS FOR THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPIN ACROSS ND ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY ON THU. THE ACCOMPANYING SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY NOON...WITH SOME 850:700 MB QG CONVERGENCE AND 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG IT. RH FIELDS POINT TO A THIN RIBBON OF SATURATION THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SO...DESPITE THE LACK OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND A TAP INTO BETTER MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL PCPN CHANCES FOR WED. BY THU...THE REGION WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...LEADING TO SUNNY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS MORNING...ANY MORE FOG CHANCES? FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAIN DRAWBACK TO THE FOG POTENTIAL WOULD BE ANY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY...THE LOW LEVEL/SFC WINDS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG. RH FIELDS WOULD KEEP THE SATURATION WEST OF THE REGION FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE //MET/MAV/FWC// ALSO KEEPS THE LOCAL AREA CLEAR...AND HINTS AT FOG. BELIEVE THE FOG POTENTIAL IS THERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY. UNSURE AT THE MOMENT IF IT WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THAT. FOR THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS EAST...BUT CURRENTLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MIGHT KEEP WINDS UP TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OVERALL...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY "DECENT" CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE. BASICALLY...RATHER NICE FALL WEATHER...FOR THE END OF THE SUMMER. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE A LOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE AT THE SFC AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE SAME TIME...MOVING EAST ON MONDAY. SUNNY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL RESULT...WITH SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG LIKELY FOR SEVERAL MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ RIECK 970 FXUS62 KJAX 300702 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 300 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS THE BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE REMAINING TO OUR WEST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDS INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND A HIGH OVER EXTREME SE FL AND BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE KATRINA CONTINUES THE TREK TOWARD THE TN/OH VALLEYS. A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL A TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE SWATH OF TRPCL MSTR WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SEWD WED AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL SEEP INTO NRN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF FCST AREA LIMITING CONVECTION ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN LOWER/MID 90S AND QUITE HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES (HI) IN THE LOWER 100'S AGAIN TODAY AND WED. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO LOWER 70S WITHIN THE DRIER AIR AND HI WILL FALL TO BELOW 100 ON THURS EXCEPT ACROSS SRN ZONES. .LONG TERM...CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE TROUGH STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A LOCAL NOREASTER AND CONTINUED MILDER TEMPS. && .MARINE...OFFSHORE BUOYS STILL SHOW SOUTH WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH 4-5 FOOT SEAS. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TODAY AND REMAIN BREEZY. WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR ALL WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NW ON THURSDAY AND THEN NE FRI WITH AN INCREASE ON SAT. RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY WILL BE MODERATE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 76 92 72 / 60 40 60 20 SSI 90 79 90 78 / 60 40 60 30 JAX 93 77 91 75 / 60 40 60 30 SGJ 91 78 89 77 / 60 50 60 30 GNV 91 76 89 75 / 60 50 60 30 OCF 90 76 89 75 / 60 50 60 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...TRABERT MARINE/FIRE WX...ZIBURA 705 FXUS62 KGSP 300713 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 313 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM KATRINA SHIFTING A BIT MORE EASTWARD IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FOR THE REMNANT LOW AND MUCH MORE EASTWARD THAN INDICATED BY EITHER OF OUR SHORT RANGE MODELS. CONVECTION IS REALLY FILLING IN NOW IN BETTER SHEAR AND FORCING AXIS ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PROPER. AS THIS DEEPER MOISTURE GETS THROWN UP AGAINST OUR HIGHER TERRAIN ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA. IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE WE SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE EASTERN ZONES. WILL HIGHLIGHT CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY AND LIKELY TO CHANCE EAST...AND HOLD ON TO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT. WE WILL CHANGE THE MONIKER TO FLOOD WATCH SINCE MOST AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVING RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ARE THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING...AND THE RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. WITH THE FORWARD SPEED OF KATRINA INCREASING...CHANGES IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE FASTER AND MORE VARIABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED. THE EASTWARD SHIFT WILL MAKE IT LIKELY THAT SOME HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME RATHER HIGH WIND GUSTS. UPSTREAM...THE 88-D AT KBMX AND KHTX STILL SHOW 40 TO 50 KTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE; PROFILE OVER OUR REGION MUCH LIGHTER AT PRESENT BUT WE DO ANTICIPATE AN INCRASE IN THE WIND. AN UNUSUAL WIND PHENOMENON OVER NORTH ALABAMA HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS TREES DOWN THERE EVEN WITH MUCH LIGHTER OBSERVED WINDS FROM METAR SITES THAT HAVE MANAGED TO REMAIN ONLINE. THERE COULD BE POCKETS WHERE THE HIGHER RADAR-INDICATED WINDS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE OR A GRAVITY WAVE IS POSSIBLE. IF WIND SPEEDS NEED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR THE WESTERN CWFA THIS MORNING...THERE IS STILL TIME TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS UPSTREAM AS WIND PROFILES STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PREDAWN AND AS THOSE STRENGTHENING PROFILES IMPACT NORTH GEORGIA. FOR NOW...WE WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA...MENTIONING SOME WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR SO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CWFA HAS BEEN EARMARKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...SLIGHT RISK WEST FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ALL OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE FAR SOUTHERN UPSTATE...MODERATE RISK INDICATED NOW FOR THE CENTRAL UPSTATE THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS DUE STRONGER 0-1 KM FLOW AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ANY SURFACE HEATING TO ENHANCE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF APPALACHIANS. INTERESTING THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS BRING SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR INTO THE WESTERN CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS EASTERN SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE MOIST. WE ALSO LOSE A LOT OF OUR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON..ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WIND SPEEDS OVERALL ARE PROGD TO STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE WITH SURAFCE CIRCULATION AROUND KATRINA MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH AND UPPER TROF APPROACHING WITH POTENTIAL DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION LATE. WITH MODERATE RISK IN PLACE FOR THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL INCLUDE THE SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONE TEXT. IT MIGHT BE PRUDENT HERE TO MENTION THAT A TORNADO WATCH DOES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN CWFA UNTIL 6 AM. AS SIGNIFICANT ECHOES UPSTREAM APPROACH THE REGION...WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL WATCHES POSTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. PLAN TO TONE DOWN POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE CWFA BUT MAINTAIN DECENT CHANCES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED AND CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING WITH APPROACH OF NOT ONLY THE UPPER LOW REPRESENTING THE MID LEVEL PART OF KATRINA BUT ALSO THE OVERALL APPROACH OF THE TROF IN WHICH THE SYSTEM IS ENVELOPED. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGD TO SWING AROUND TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND TO WESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION...BY MORNING. MODELS BRING A DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA ALSO WITH THE FEATURE...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO SUPPORT THAT IDEA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A RAPID DRYING OUT AND A BOUNDARY CROSSING THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. WE WILL KEEP CHANCES GOING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY PROGD...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE NOT WORKED ON TEMPERATURES YET BUT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL WEST TODAY...WARMER EAST WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS AND POPS SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE. && .AVIATION... MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH KCLT DEVELOPING A LOW CLOUD CEILING BEFORE SUNRISE. ONCE IN THE MVFR...EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS A PREVAILING CONDITION THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MODELS SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. HOWEVER... EXPECT PRECIP TO BE OFF AN ON AND SHOWERY...WITH STRETCHES OF GOOD VISIBILITY IN TROPICAL AIR. THE TEMPO GROUP IS TAILOR MADE FOR THIS SCENARIO SO I WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT...AND MOVE THE PRECIP FORECAST TO TEMPO CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES. EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO MOVE NORTH AND FADE WITH SUNSET...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A VCSH AFTER 00Z WITH A LOW CLOUD CEILING HANGING ON. LOOKING AHEAD... GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS DROPPING INTO IFR RANGE IN SOME CASES TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067 FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY. SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001>005 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001 >007-010- 011 FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...SAB LONG TERM...SAB AVIATION...PM 842 FXUS63 KIWX 300713 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 213 AM EST TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... 00Z GUIDANCE STRUGGLING W/HANDLING OF REMNANT KATRINA CIRCULATION. AS OF 06Z...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MID LVL FTR OVR SW TN AND WELL AHD OF 06Z PROGS W/A CONTD TYPICAL UNDERESTIMATE OF SFC LOW INTENSITY. COMPARED TO LAST EVENING...TS CYCLONE POSITION NE OF PROGGED POSITION AND LATEST HPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO NOTED W/LATEST TREND IN 00Z GFS WHICH BY ALL ACCOUNTS SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON SYS AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD. STRUGGLE THIS MORNING AGAIN LIES W/WWD EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE TN VALLEY TODAY BUT LOOKS TO BE A BIT EWD OF PREV EXPECTATIONS YET STILL A HEAVY RAIN THREAT SE CORNER LT THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT INADV OF MID LVL CNTR AND DEEPENING MSTR FLUX. WILL LEAVE THINGS PRETTY MUCH AS IS BUT WRN POP EXTENT MAY BE OVERDONE SOMEWHAT AT THIS POINT. WILDCARD OUTSIDE OF THAT LIES W/SFC TROF EXTNDG SWWD OUT OF UPR TROF OVR ERN ONT. 00Z NAM SUGGESTION OF CONV ALG THIS BNDRY LT AFTN/EVENING IN CONCERT W/STRENGTHENING LL MSTR FLUX HAS MERIT W/XPCD DESTABILIZATION UNDERNEATH INCIPIENT MID LVL DRY SLOT XPCD. ALTHOUGH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITHIN LEFT FLANK OF DECAYING TROPICAL SYS STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE FOR A VRY TIGHT QPF GRADIENT OVERNIGHT...NOTHING NORTHWEST TO 2 INCHES FAR SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE GOING TEMP FCST LOOKS GREAT W/AFTN RAIN ARRIVAL FAR S/SE AND DEEPENING CLOUD SHIELD S-N THROUGH THE DAY. && .LONG TERM... THE MAIN THING TO CONTEMPLATE FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME IS WHAT THE EFFECTS ARE GOING TO BE FROM KATRINA ON WEDNESDAY. WATCHING CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURES, KATRINA IS MOVING QUITE QUICKLY NORTH AND EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF KATRINA...UP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH OHIO AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE SPEED CORRECTLY OF THE MOVEMENT OF KATRINA. GFS80 MOVES KATRINA THE FASTEST ALONG THIS TRACK. WITH NUMERICAL POP VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALSO VERY LOW, HAVE PULLED ALL RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF KATRINA, OVER THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO, POP VALUES AND AREAL COVERAGE COULD ALSO BE DECREASED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ALSO BE LESS ON WEDNESDAY THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT IF KATRINA WAS TO QUICKLY MOVE BY OUR CWA. WE COULD HAVE HAD SOME RAIN ON THURSDAY; BUT THE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS OUR CWA WILL WEAKEN AND ALMOST BE NON-EXISTENT THROUGH OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. 500MB FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL ON THURSDAY WITH BASICALLY NO INDICATION OF A TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE OVER OUR CWA FOR THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD TO MONDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION... CONTD OVERALL TONE FM PREV FCST. STILL A STRUGGLE W/NWD EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD DUE TO KATRINA TONIGHT BUT EARLY INDICATION IS BRUNT TO PASS ACRS SE CORNER OF CWA W/VFR XPCD AT SBN AND TEMPO MVFR IN SHRA/BR AT FWA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE WILDCARD LIES W/STALLED SFC TROF EXTNDG SWWD FM UPR TROF OVR ERN ONT AND OF WHICH FIRED CONVN THIS EVENING. SOME SUGGESTION PER 00Z NAM THAT THIS MAY AGAIN FIRE LT THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS STG MSTR FLUX DVLPS INADV OF KATRINA AND SOME DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITHIN MID LVL DRY WEDGE THIS AFTN. ATTM FAVORED AREA APPEARS TO LIE BTWN TAF SITES BUT ALSO LOW PROB EVENT ANYWAY AND LEFT OUT. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN LONG TERM...LOTHAMER 753 FXUS61 KRNK 300714 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 255 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... FINALLY STARTING TO SEE ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC. STILL LOOKS LIKE BULK OF RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF OUR FA...WITH BANDING SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS OUR FA...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BIG CONCERN TODAY WILL BE DESTABILIZATION AND TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN HELICITIES PROGGED IN THE 150-300 RANGE PER GFS. SPC ALREADY HAS MOST OF THE FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN A MODERATE RISK. CAPES ARE NOT ALL TOO HIGH...AND THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE FROM GETTING TOO UNSTABLE. STILL WIND ENERGY AND SHEAR COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SVR. QPF NOT TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP. THINKING PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP FASTER THAN PROGGED...GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING. DRY SLOT LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA TOWARD EARLY EVENING...WITH PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST PER GFS SOLUTION. THREAT OF SVR SHOULD BE OVER AFTER 00Z. GENERAL GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NC...DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES TODAY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DUE TO A LITTLE SLOWER TIMING ON THE RAIN BANDS MOVING IN AND ANTICIPATING A LITTLE SUN. WILL HAVE MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH TROPICAL AIR OVER THE REGION. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... REMNANTS OF KATRINA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WED MORNING...OR CLOSE TO THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS. STILL A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MORNING...SO COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WINDS VEER MORE TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON...AND THE GFS IS ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS REASONABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF OF A HURRICANE. I HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS GOING INTO WED AFTERNOON...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE I THINK THEY CAN BE REMOVED. I ALSO RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WED- ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT. I EXPECT WE WILL CLEAR OFF ENOUGH WED NIGHT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TO SEE LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL HAVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY...THEN SEE CUMULUS DEVELOPING AND SPREDING OUT BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. I STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ WP/JJ/ 249 FXUS61 KCTP 300716 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 316 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... T.S. KATRINA ABOUT TO ENTER WESTERN TN AT PRESENT. MUCH OF CENTRAL PA IN LULL BETWEEN DEPARTING UPSTATE NEW YORK SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA'S APPROACHING CIRCULATION OVER SRN OHIO AND WV. GFS TRACK PREFERRED OVER ALL OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS THIS MORNING DUE TO LATEST TRENDS AND GOOD CONSISTENCY. KATRINA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO T.D. STRENGTH LATER TODAY...TPC TRACK HAS CENTER OF CIRC. REACHING NEAR KERI BY 7 AM WED...LIKE THE TRACK BUT THINK FORWARD SPEED WILL BE EVEN FASTER. MAIN THREATS WITH THIS TRACK WILL BE LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PATH OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. WANT TO AGAIN STRESS THAT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE KATRINA EXITS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN COLLABORATION WITH KPBZ AND KBUF...WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR MY WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES VALID 17Z TODAY THROUGH 17Z WED. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON. FURTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS...ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE LIKELY. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE RIVER FLOODING...BUT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO TRAINING LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... KATRINA LIFTS NW OF CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING... LEAVING BALMY AND QUITE BREEZY CONDS IN ITS WAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES BEHIND THE STORM AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARRIVE. GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDS SEEN FROM THU ONWARD WITH COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CANADIAN AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO PA BY FRIDAY AND SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...DEVOIR AVIATION...MARTIN 380 FXUS63 KIWX 300716 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 213 AM EST TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... 00Z GUIDANCE STRUGGLING W/HANDLING OF REMNANT KATRINA CIRCULATION. AS OF 06Z...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MID LVL FTR OVR SW TN AND WELL AHD OF 06Z PROGS W/A CONTD TYPICAL UNDERESTIMATE OF SFC LOW INTENSITY. COMPARED TO LAST EVENING...TS CYCLONE POSITION NE OF PROGGED POSITION AND LATEST HPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO NOTED W/LATEST TREND IN 00Z GFS WHICH BY ALL ACCOUNTS SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON SYS AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD. STRUGGLE THIS MORNING AGAIN LIES W/WWD EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE TN VALLEY TODAY BUT LOOKS TO BE A BIT EWD OF PREV EXPECTATIONS YET STILL A HEAVY RAIN THREAT SE CORNER LT THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT INADV OF MID LVL CNTR AND DEEPENING MSTR FLUX. WILL LEAVE THINGS PRETTY MUCH AS IS BUT WRN POP EXTENT MAY BE OVERDONE SOMEWHAT AT THIS POINT. WILDCARD OUTSIDE OF THAT LIES W/SFC TROF EXTNDG SWWD OUT OF UPR TROF OVR ERN ONT. 00Z NAM SUGGESTION OF CONV ALG THIS BNDRY LT AFTN/EVENING IN CONCERT W/STRENGTHENING LL MSTR FLUX HAS MERIT W/XPCD DESTABILIZATION UNDERNEATH INCIPIENT MID LVL DRY SLOT XPCD. ALTHOUGH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITHIN LEFT FLANK OF DECAYING TROPICAL SYS STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE FOR A VRY TIGHT QPF GRADIENT OVERNIGHT...NOTHING NORTHWEST TO 2 INCHES FAR SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE GOING TEMP FCST LOOKS GREAT W/AFTN RAIN ARRIVAL FAR S/SE AND DEEPENING CLOUD SHIELD S-N THROUGH THE DAY. && .LONG TERM... THE MAIN THING TO CONTEMPLATE FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME IS WHAT THE EFFECTS ARE GOING TO BE FROM KATRINA ON WEDNESDAY. WATCHING CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURES, KATRINA IS MOVING QUITE QUICKLY NORTH AND EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF KATRINA...UP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH OHIO AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE SPEED CORRECTLY OF THE MOVEMENT OF KATRINA. GFS80 MOVES KATRINA THE FASTEST ALONG THIS TRACK HAVING THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AT 12Z WED AND THEN OVER NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN VERMONT BY 00Z THUR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP TO MOVE KATRINA ALONG ON ITS PROJECTED PATH. WITH NUMERICAL POP VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALSO VERY LOW, HAVE PULLED ALL RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF KATRINA, OVER THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO, POP VALUES AND AREAL COVERAGE COULD ALSO BE DECREASED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ALSO BE LESS ON WEDNESDAY THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT IF KATRINA WAS TO QUICKLY MOVE BY OUR CWA. WE COULD HAVE HAD SOME RAIN ON THURSDAY; BUT THE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS OUR CWA WILL WEAKEN AND ALMOST BE NON-EXISTENT THROUGH OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. 500MB FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL ON THURSDAY WITH BASICALLY NO INDICATION OF A TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE OVER OUR CWA FOR THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD TO MONDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION... CONTD OVERALL TONE FM PREV FCST. STILL A STRUGGLE W/NWD EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD DUE TO KATRINA TONIGHT BUT EARLY INDICATION IS BRUNT TO PASS ACRS SE CORNER OF CWA W/VFR XPCD AT SBN AND TEMPO MVFR IN SHRA/BR AT FWA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE WILDCARD LIES W/STALLED SFC TROF EXTNDG SWWD FM UPR TROF OVR ERN ONT AND OF WHICH FIRED CONVN THIS EVENING. SOME SUGGESTION PER 00Z NAM THAT THIS MAY AGAIN FIRE LT THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS STG MSTR FLUX DVLPS INADV OF KATRINA AND SOME DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITHIN MID LVL DRY WEDGE THIS AFTN. ATTM FAVORED AREA APPEARS TO LIE BTWN TAF SITES BUT ALSO LOW PROB EVENT ANYWAY AND LEFT OUT. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN LONG TERM...LOTHAMER 660 FXUS61 KCTP 300717 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 316 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... T.S. KATRINA ABOUT TO ENTER WESTERN TN AT PRESENT. MUCH OF CENTRAL PA IN LULL BETWEEN DEPARTING UPSTATE NEW YORK SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA'S APPROACHING CIRCULATION OVER SRN OHIO AND WV. GFS TRACK PREFERRED OVER ALL OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS THIS MORNING DUE TO LATEST TRENDS AND GOOD CONSISTENCY. KATRINA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO T.D. STRENGTH LATER TODAY...TPC TRACK HAS CENTER OF CIRC. REACHING NEAR KERI BY 7 AM WED...LIKE THE TRACK BUT THINK FORWARD SPEED WILL BE EVEN FASTER. MAIN THREATS WITH THIS TRACK WILL BE LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PATH OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. WANT TO AGAIN STRESS THAT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE KATRINA EXITS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN COLLABORATION WITH KPBZ AND KBUF...WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR MY WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES VALID 17Z TODAY THROUGH 17Z WED. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON. FURTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS...ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE LIKELY. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE RIVER FLOODING...BUT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO TRAINING LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... KATRINA LIFTS NW OF CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING... LEAVING BALMY AND QUITE BREEZY CONDS IN ITS WAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES BEHIND THE STORM AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARRIVE. GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDS SEEN FROM THU ONWARD WITH COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CANADIAN AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO PA BY FRIDAY AND SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO WED...AS FRONT STALLS...AND THE REMAINS OF KATRINA HEADS TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...MAINLY NW AND SE PARTS OF THE CWA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...DEVOIR AVIATION...MARTIN 038 FXUS63 KLMK 300717 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 317 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT-TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... AT 06Z THE SURFACE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS OVER TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. GFS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE STORM AT 00Z AND VERIFIED WELL AT 06Z. GFS IS ALSO MODEL OF CHOICE OF NHC. SO...WILL FAVOR ITS SOLUTION. THE CENTER OF KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE BOWLING GREEN AREA AROUND NOON AND THEN NEAR CINCINNATI BY THIS EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION IT WILL BRING PLENTY OF RAIN...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH PWATS ARE AROUND 2.5 INCHES TODAY...THE STORM IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY SO AMOUNTS MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...PERHAPS MORE IN THE 1.5 TO 3 INCH RANGE. ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT TODAY SOME LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO GET GOING LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR...AS IS THE CASE WITH STRONG TROPICAL SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS ONE...A SEVERE THREAT IS THERE INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. BUFKIT HELICITY VALUES INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AND PEAK AROUND MID-DAY. THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SPIN-UP APPEARS TO BE EAST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEW CASTLE TO BOWLING GREEN TO STANFORD...INCLUDING LEXINGTON AND THE BLUE GRASS. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY BUT BY AND LARGE THE WINDS SHOULDN'T GET OUT OF HAND. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. AS KATRINA MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT RAIN AND BREEZES WILL SUBSIDE AND THE OVERCAST WILL BREAK UP. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS...PERHAPS RISES OF 4 TO 6 DEGREES FROM MORNING TEMPERATURES. 13 .LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... REMNANTS OF KATRINA SHOULD MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE FA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT QUICKLY GETS KICKED NE BY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DOWN TO TEXAS. SHOULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT FROM DRY TO WET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SYSTEM. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED JUST UPSTREAM OF THE DYING SYSTEM...SO WILL END ALL MENTION OF RAIN IN CWA BY 15Z WED. WITH ANY CLEARING BEHIND KATRINA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE LOW 80S. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALONG WITH A SMALL AREA OF WEAK DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF 250MB JET. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO GENERATE ISLD/SCT SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW. AFTER THAT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...WITH MAINLY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BOARD. ENSEMBLE MOS SHOWS MUCH DRIER DEWS FROM FRI AFT THROUGH EXTENDED FORECAST. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES RUNNING AROUND THE 1380-1390M RANGE...WHICH SHOULD YIELD ROUGHLY LOW 80S FOR THE REGION FOR HIGHS. LOWS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR 60...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS BLUEGRASS REGION. AL && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT/11 PM CDT FOR ALL COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT/3 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. IN...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FOR ALL SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. && $$ 236 FXUS62 KCAE 300719 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 318 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEAKENING AS TROPICAL STORM KATRINA MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWING RAINBAND DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN GEORGIA/EAST ALABAMA...ODELS SHOW MOISTURE FLUX INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. BEST LIFT REMAINS MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA AS STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO KENTUCKY. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS LOOK MOIST WITH PRECIP WATER AROUND 2.30 INCHES. 0-1KM SHEAR INCREASING DURING THE MORNING AND STRONG BY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER STORM CENTER LOCATION...ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN THE PIEDMONT AND CSRA TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS EAST AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS. MODEL VAD WIND PROFILES SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL ISSUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS BEST FORCING NORTH OF REGION. LOW CHANCE POPS EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY EASTERN ZONES AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE COAST. WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THRU AREA IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS INTO THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED. && .AVIATION... EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL HELP CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE HURRICANE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS NEAR 22 KNOTS AT THE TERMINALS TODAY. STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL CWA. GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL CWA. && $$ 337 FXUS63 KPAH 300724 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 223 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... BIGGEST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. GFS HAS APPARENTLY HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE TRACK...STRENGTH...ETC OF KATRINA...HOWEVER LATEST WATER VAPOR SAT PIX SHOWING CIRCULATION CENTER STARTING TO RECURVE TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF THE BORDERS OF TN...AL...AND MS...NEAR SAVANNAH TN WHICH IS 75 TO 100 MILES FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE GFS FORECAST IT TO BE AT 06Z...CONSEQUENTLY TIMING AND DURATION OF THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. HAVE DIVIDED THE FIRST PERIOD IN HALF. CONTINUED TO HIT THE POPS...WX...QPF HARD THIS MORNING...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. EXCEPT FOR THAT AREA...WILL DROP POPS TO CHC CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS THAT WERE CATEGORICAL OR LIKELY THIS MORNING. PRECIP WILL END TONIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS KATRINA QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BUT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE...NO PRECIP IS FORECAST WITH ITS PASSAGE. NO OTHER POPS AT THIS TIME BEYOND 2ND PERIOD (TONIGHT). WILL MAKE NO CHANGES BEYOND 5TH PERIOD. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6PM CDT. MO...NONE. IL...FLOOD WATCH SE IL ALONG/EAST OF I57/I24 UNTIL 6 PM CDT. IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6PM CDT. && $$ JAP 823 FXUS61 KLWX 300725 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 323 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT... BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY AND TNGT WILL BE SVR THREAT. ATTM WEAKENING KATRINA IS LOCATED IN SRN TN (SW OF NASHVILLE)...AND MOVING TO THE NNE. STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR AND MERGE INTO LARGE BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATION NE THROUGH KY/OH/PA. HVY RAINS SHOULD REMAIN RELEGATED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE REMNANTS OF THE STORM WILL TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...AS INDICATED BY SLGT SHIFT E IN THE GFS AND ALSO IN THE 3 HR PRES FALLS IN SRN KY WITH RIDGE OF PRES FALLS INTO WRN WV ATTM. EVEN SO...HVY RAIN THREAT WOULD STILL BE MINIMAL BUT SVR THREAT ENHANCED...AS WELL AS A LITTLE BETTER SYNOPTIC WINDS DUE TO GRAD. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE OFF THE GFS SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY AND TNGT. FIND THE NAM TO BE UNRELIABLE DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES (IT IS NOW TRACKING FURTHER W THAN THE GFS ACROSS WRN OH WHICH SEEMS WRONG). WINDS AND OVERALL SHEAR MAY BE STRONGER THAN THE GFS INDICATES IF THE LOW TRACK IS A LITTLE FURTHER E AND ALSO MAINTAINS BETTER GRADIENT...WHICH IS WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING EVER SINCE LANDFALL. ONE PROBLEM IN SVR THREAT IS PERSISTENT BL ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS MAY KEEP LOW OVC GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESP TO THE E OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR. ALSO CONSIDER THE LOWER SUN ANGLE OF LATE SUMMER. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...AND CONSIDERING MOD RISK FROM SPC ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWFA PRIMARILY FOR TORNADOES (15% THREAT LEVEL)...THINK THE BEST THREAT OF ISO TORNADOES WILL BE IN THE I-81 AND BLUE RIDGE AREAS. FOR NOW WE PLAN TO MENTION SOME STORMS MAY BE SVR IN THE FCST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AND LET LATER SHIFTS FINE TUNE TO INCRS TO MENTION TOR OR REMOVE THE THREAT ALTOGETHER (NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO MENTION TOR IN THE FCST). THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL QUESTIONABLE FACTORS SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW AND CLOUDINESS...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO PA...WITH ALL OF THE BEST DYNAMICS TO THE NE OF THE LOW. THUS ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SMALLER CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. JB && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... OBSERVATIONS...500MB HEIGHT/ANOMALY NORTHERN HEMISPHERE PATTERN DURING THE PAST 5 DAYS INDICATES A PROGRESSIVE WAVE PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WATERS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS KATRINA MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE JAMES BAY...AND A RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROPICAL STORM KATRINA OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST NORTHEAST INTO JAMES BAY. A 1016MB ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG. MODELS...THE 00Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN ALONG WITH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND UKMET WERE EXAMINED. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INITIAL HEIGHT RISES THEREAFTER. MODELS VARY IN TIMING AND DEPTH OF A REINFORCING WAVE WHICH MAY REDEVELOP A TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC LATE DURING THE WEEK. CONSENSUS BUILDS HEIGHTS FROM THE LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK...ALLOWING THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD IN. ENSEMBLES...12Z GFS 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES INDICATE KATRINA WILL PHASE WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDWEEK...ACCELERATING NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE DURING THE WEEK. A SECOND WAVE ALLOWS A TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC EARLY THIS WEEKEND...WHICH MOVES NORTHEAST AND ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INDICATE MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S DURING THE MID WEEK...TO AROUND 80 FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD. MEAN POPS FALL BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA THURSDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FORECAST RATIONALE...PHASED SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSITIONING TO KATAFRONTIC FROM ANAFRONTIC WEDNESDAY AS THE MIDLEVEL SYSTEM PROPAGATES EAST. GIVEN THE HEALTHY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH. THIS SHOULD IN SOME FORM ALLOW FOR LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A REDEVELOPMENT OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL CONUS SURFACE HIGH FROM BUILDING IN. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE HOW MUCH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...SO KEPT IT OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING THE TROUGH TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/INCREASING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES AND PLEASANT WEATHER SHOULD PRESIDE. ROGOWSKI && .AVIATION... HAVE MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEGINNING THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS EVNG...GFS 850 WINDS AROUND 50 KT AND THESE COULD BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE ACTUALLY. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT CRANK UP SOME...WITH BL WINDS OFF THE GFS AROUND 30 KT. FOR THIS SHIFT WE WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING LATE TNGT AND ENDING LATE WED NGT WHEN THE GRAD BEGINS TO SLACK OFF. TIDE LEVELS ARE ONLY RUNNING ABOUT A HALF-FOOT ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THINK WITH SOME STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS LATE TNGT TIL LATE WED NGT. && $$ 728 FXUS61 KAKQ 300729 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 329 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... EVEN THOUGH CENTER OF KATRINA SHOULD REMAIN WELL W OF THE AREA TODAY...STILL A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD TORNADOES ACROSS AT LEAST WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. AS TS KATRINA MOVES NWD TODAY...SLY LLJ ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY INCREASES...WITH GFS SHOWING 35 KTS FROM S AT 850 MB BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SFC FLOW SE...AND UPPER FLOW INCREASING FROM THE SW...WITH 40 KT AT 500 MB. GFS GRIDDED DATA INDICATE ZERO TO 1 KM SHEAR VALUES INCREASING OVER WRN COUNTIES TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS. ZERO TO 1 KM SHEAR VALUES DROP OFF AS ONE GOES FARTHER E. THESE SHEAR PARAMATERS SUGGEST ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHEAR PARALLEL S TO N BANDS...AND POSSIBLY MINI SUPERCELLS...WITH ISOLD TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY...GIVEN ADEQUATE INSTABILTY. THIS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SUNSHINE. FOR THIS REASON...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED OUR EASTERN VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES...MAINLY W OF INTERSTATE 95...IN A MODERATE RISK...WITH SLIGHT RISK INDICATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AS KATRINA EXISTS THE NE UNITED STATES...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRY SLOTTING WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF...SO WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... FRONT OFFSHORE BY THU. LOOKS LIKE DRY...AND RELATIVELY LESS HUMID CONDITINIONS ON TAP FOR FRI THROUGH MON. && .AVIATION...VFR CNDTNS ATTM MOST SITES (XCPT FOR THE USUAL DENSE FOG AT SBY). MAYBE SOME LCL IFR CNDTNS ARND SR DUE TO FOG...OTW VFR XPCTD TDY. HAVE ADDED CHC TSRA IN FOR RIC AS THE REMNANTS OF KARTINA PASS BY TO THE W. WILL PRBLY ADD TSRA (AFTR 18Z) TO CSTL TAF SITES WITH 12Z ISSUANCE. && .MARINE...NO FLAGS TDY AS SE FLOW REMAINS AOB 15KTS. PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO TIGHTEN UP AFTR MIDNITE TONITE AND WED INCRG S-SE WNDS INTO 15-20 KTS RANGE. THIS RESULTS IN SEAS APPRCHG 5 FT. THUS WILL HEADLINE SCA (FOR SEAS) STARTING LATE TONITE ACROSS NRN WTRS...THEN MINIMAL SCA CNDTNS (WND WISE) ALL MARINE AREAS WED. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...18 AVIATION/MARINE...44 265 FXUS63 KAPX 300732 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 332 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL EXTENDING FROM THE LOW THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES. LAST IN A LONG LINE OF SHORT WAVES IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU UPPER MICHIGAN...GENERATING A THIN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM EAST OF ANJ TO ISQ TO JUST WEST OF GREEN BAY. FURTHER UPSTREAM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND NW GREAT LAKES...AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA CHURN TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. NRN EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA CURRENTLY EXTENDS THRU NRN IL...SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND IS MAKING SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS. VERY FEW FORECAST ISSUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA SERVE TO STAGNATE THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM WX FEATURES. AFTER A MINIMAL CHANCE OF A LINGERING SHOWER THIS MORNING VIA THE FINAL SHORT WAVE...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THRU THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. TODAY...ELONGATED AREA OF DPVA RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DROP SE THRU THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA...AND SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED BY LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND BY WARMING ALOFT (ABOVE 800 MB). WILL ADD A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MORNING FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32...BUT WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON DRY WITH THE ANTICIPATION THAT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY ALL DAY. SKIES SHOULD STAY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A MAINLY BKN LOW CLOUD DECK. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS MICHIGAN AS THE FINAL SHORT WAVES EXITS EAST AWAY FROM THE STATE. UPPER RIDGE AXIS REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE. CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE AND THIN SOMEWHAT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR. BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO WARRANT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THRU THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REACH WRN SECTIONS OF MICHIGAN TOWARD EVENING...WITH A SURFACE LOW AND FRONT FAST ON ITS HEELS AS IT MOVES INTO WISCONSIN. MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE LACKING WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE PARENT LOW. ALL OF WEDNESDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE 70S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BECOME A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF MICHIGAN CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THRU THURSDAY...BUT WILL ADVERTISE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THRU. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 007 FXUS62 KFFC 300733 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 331 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM IS DOMINATED BY WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. AT AFD TIME...KATRINA WAS WORKING HER WAY THROUGH NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THE FINAL COUPLE OF NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RAIN BANDS WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INDICATIONS ON THE GFS WITH 200 MB DIVERGENCE AND PW MAXIMA ARE NOT AS CLEARLY JUXTAPOSED AS THEY HAVE BEEN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...SO DO NOT FEEL THAT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN AND CERTAINLY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OF FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE BANDS AND THE TRAINING OF THE CELLS AS THEY MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT AS CELLS APPROACH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE MONTHS OF ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE NORTHWEST...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY. BEHIND THESE RAIN BANDS...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS KICKING IN FULL FORCE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. SOME SORT OF PHENOMENON... WHETHER SIMPLE SUBSIDENCE OR SOMETHING MORE COMPLICATED...IS BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE IN AREAS JUST TO OUR WEST. BASED ON REPORTS COMING OUT OF ALABAMA A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA UNTIL 6 AM. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE MET AFTER THESE STRONG WINDS PASS BY...AND FOR NOW THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING. MODEL PROGS OF HELICITY CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 200-300 M2/S2 THROUGH GENERALLY MID-MORNING...AND 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES APPROACH 40KTS. HOWEVER...FOR THE LATTER...MODEL RESOLUTION AT THESE LEVELS ARE SOMETIMES NOT SUFFICIENT FOR EVEN A DECENT PROGNOSTICATION OF 0-1KM SHEAR...NEVERTHELESS THE TORNADO THREAT IS DEFINITELY A CONCERN THAT REMAINS AS LONG AS THESE FEEDER BANDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE KATRINA MOVES OUT OF THE AREA COMPETING SYSTEMS BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE WITH ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAX SWEEPS THROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF KATRINA... AND THEN ONCE AGAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR BOUNDARY STALLS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. WHILE MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL ACTUALLY SEE A DRY BEGINNING TO SEPTEMBER...THIS STALLED BOUNDARY OR AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WARRANT KEEPING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF TO BELOW NORMAL...IN SOME CASES FIVE OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES. .LONG TERM... UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FLOW TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL TEASE OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE CLOUDS...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME. THE GFS DOES INDICATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW TO COME ONSHORE SPREADING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATLANTA 82 72 89 69 / 60 40 20 10 ATHENS 80 71 90 68 / 50 40 20 10 GAINESVILLE 78 70 86 67 / 70 40 30 10 ROME 82 73 90 64 / 90 40 30 10 COLUMBUS 88 75 94 72 / 40 40 20 10 MACON 88 74 92 68 / 40 40 20 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR GAZ001-GAZ002-GAZ003-GAZ004- GAZ005-GAZ006-GAZ007-GAZ008-GAZ009-GAZ011-GAZ012-GAZ013-GAZ014- GAZ015-GAZ016-GAZ019-GAZ020-GAZ021-GAZ022-GAZ023-GAZ024-GAZ025- GAZ027-GAZ030-GAZ031-GAZ032-GAZ033-GAZ034-GAZ035-GAZ036-GAZ037- GAZ041-GAZ042-GAZ043-GAZ044-GAZ045-GAZ046-GAZ047-GAZ048-GAZ049- GAZ052-GAZ053-GAZ054-GAZ055-GAZ056-GAZ057-GAZ058-GAZ059-GAZ066- GAZ067-GAZ068-GAZ069-GAZ070-GAZ071-GAZ078-GAZ079-GAZ080-GAZ081- GAZ089-GAZ090-GAZ091-GAZ102. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA. TORNADO WATCH 757 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTHWEST GEORGIA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTHWEST GEORGIA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. && $$ TDP 441 FXUS61 KBGM 300734 AAA AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 335 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)... STRONG UL JET HAS HELPED SPARK LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIP AREA. SOME OF THESE HAVE DEVELOPED INTERESTING ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES, INDICATIVE OF THE VERY FAVORABLE LL SHEAR. HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND STORMS HAVE ONLY APPROACHED SPS CRITERIA. A TRICKY START TODAY AS THERE ARE SEVERAL WX ELEMENTS TO DEAL WITH. THE PRECIP LINE IS TRACKING EAST, AND THE SAT IR IS CONFIRMING MODEL FORECASTS WHICH CLEAR SKIES BEHIND IT OVER NW CWA. THINK A GOOD DEAL OF MIST AND FOG WILL BE LEFT BEHIND FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK OVER SE WHERE PRECIP AREA WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING OUT. GIVEN THE SURPRISING ORGANIZATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT, AM INCLINED TO AGREE WITH SPC ASSESSMENT THAT THERE IS SVR POTENTIAL OVER NE PA LATER TODAY. ADDING A LITTLE DIURNAL HEATING TO AN ALREADY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY DO THE TRICK AS BANDS MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CWA. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...KATRINA REMNANTS WILL SPREAD A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. NAM AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST STRONGEST BANDS COULD FORM OVER NORTHERN CWA BACK THROUGH FINGER LAKES...AND THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR FLOODING CONCERNS. OTHERWISE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST. DEFINITELY CONCERN FOR SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS IT WILL ALL COME DOWN TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. IF WE IMPORT COOL ATLANTIC AIR SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER IF FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY THEN SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO COMBO OF IMPRESSIVE HODOGRAPH AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. CONTINUING SPS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. DJP && .LONG TERM (WED NIGHT - MONDAY)... UPPER LEVEL TROF AND MOISTURE FROM KATRINA WILL MOVE THROUGH CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS ON THURSDAY MORNING FOR ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH CHC POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE NE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RRM && .AVIATION (29/18-30/18)... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WITH SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND AN OVERCAST CIRRUS DECK. THIS EVENING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO HAZE. AFTER 06Z, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND MIST ALONG WITH CIGS AROUND 2-3K FT. FURTHER NORTH (SYR/UCA), VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST BUT INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP 0812Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. AFTER 12Z, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HAZE. RRM && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. $$ 713 FXUS62 KTBW 300734 AFDTBW WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 330 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA TODAY AS KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH THRU THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SIMILAR TO MONDAY...THINK MAV POPS TOO HIGH. DEEP SW TROPICAL FLOW WILL KEEP PWS REMAINING HIGH TODAY...HOWEVER BASED ON COVERAGE YESTERDAY WITH SIMILAR FLOW...PREFER LOWER MET POPS SUGGESTING SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH SIMILAR PATTERN OF SW FLOW...WILL CONTINUE SIMILAR FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SCAT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR 90. ON THU...WE'LL SEE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A TROF TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM KATRINA REMNANTS. THIS TROF WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON THU. WITH MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ESP NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY NORTH OF THE BAY AND LEAVE SCATTERED SOUTH OF THE BAY. TEMPS AGAIN NEAR NORM FOR THU. && .LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-MON)...GFS PERSISTS IN BRINGING A WEAK FRONTAL FEATURE AND BASICALLY STALLING IT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THIS WEAK FRONT IS ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED TO THE REMNANT LOW FROM KATRINA WHICH GFS/ETA PLACE OVER NORTHEAST CANADA BY THURSDAY EVENING. PROBLEM WITH THIS SCENARIO IS THE PENETRATION AND TIMING OF THIS SURFACE FRONT. IF INDEED MAKES IT SOUTHWARD...CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AS A DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA. AT THIS TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SCENARIO WILL BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT...BUT NOT BRINGING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS GFS IS SHOWING. DURING SUMMER TIME IN FLORIDA IS TOUGH FOR ANY FRONT TO MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS AS THEY ARE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE LOW ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT THAT MUCH AND WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS IN ORDER TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN JUST A DEGREE OR SO BELOW NORMALS...AND MORNING LOWS WILL REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO VALUES UNLESS THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIRMASS CAN ACTUALLY MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH AT THIS POINT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO HAPPEN. && .MARINE...SCA AND HIGH SURF ADV WILL REMAIN POSTED TODAY AS SEAS STILL ON THE ROUGH SIDE FROM RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF KATRINA. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED TONIGHT. FOR PEOPLE GOING TO THE BEACH TODAY...WE ARE STILL URGING THEM TO AVOID GOING INTO THE WATER AS DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY. SCA MAY BE DROPPED ON WED AS SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD. FAIR TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO MAJOR FIRE WX CONCERNS ATTM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 81 90 78 / 50 20 50 20 FMY 89 79 89 77 / 50 20 50 20 GIF 91 78 91 77 / 50 20 50 20 SRQ 89 80 89 80 / 50 20 50 20 BKV 90 79 90 75 / 50 20 60 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE SUNCOAST FROM LEVY TO LEE COUNTY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETRO LONG TERM....REYNES 274 FXUS61 KILN 300738 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 340 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... LOW ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF KATRINA ALREADY UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY QUICKER THAN EVEN THE LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS. THE FASTER GFS STILL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS BUT EVEN IT APPEARS TO BE 3 TO 6 HOURS TOO SLOW. BASED ON STRAIGHT EXTRAPOLATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO...THE LOW SHOULD BE APPROACHING KCVG SOMETIME AROUND 19Z...ABOUT 5 HOURS FASTER THAN WHAT THE 00Z GFS IS SHOWING. ALSO...HEAVIEST RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LOW (WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED) BUT BASED ON THIS AND EXPECTED TRACK OF LOW...THINK HEAVY RAIN BAND WILL END UP A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER THINKING. THE 00Z MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS...SHIFTING HEAVY RAIN BAND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST IN OUR FA THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY USED THE 00Z GFS AS A TEMPLATE FOR THE GRIDS...AND THEN JUST SHIFTED THINGS FORWARD A FEW HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HAVE HEAVIEST PCPN OVERSPREADING FA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION ENDS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT AND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FA. STILL THOUGH...WILL HANG ON TO A CHANCE ON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MOST AREAS FOR CONSISTENCY/COLLABORATION PURPOSES. BASED ON FASTER MOVEMENT...QPF AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT BUT GIVEN TROPICAL AIRMASS...STILL THINK A SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. WILL CARRY JUST SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS WE SHOULD DESTABILIZE SOME THROUGH THE DAY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...IN MORE FAVORABLE REGION OF LOW. WITH HIGH SHEAR VALUES...WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE WHITEWATER VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE MIAMI VALLEY. AS WE GET UP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST...WILL CARRY HEAVY RAIN WORDING BUT IT APPEARS FFG VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH THAT FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED. AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE BULK OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLIER...WILL ADJUST END TIMES OF THE FLOOD WATCHES AND ONLY TAKE IT THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE SOUTH AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH. ALSO WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FASTER....THINK TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH TODAY SO WILL NUDGE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY. SIMILARLY...WILL NUDGE UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... RAIN BANDS FROM KATRINA HAVING A TOUGH TIME WORKING INTO SOUTHERN SITES THIS MORNING. HAVE PUSHED TIMING BACK AN HOUR OR TWO FOR ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...JUST FINE TUNED THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SOME IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCMH AND KCVG...THEREFORE HAVE ADDED THOSE TO TEMPO GROUP. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK. (ISSUED 342 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005) LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE REMAINS OF KATRINA. A WEAK BNDRY/TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE...SO WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY. IN FACT...AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED DRY AS WELL...AS GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILES STILL LOOK VERY DRY THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKING AT GUIDANCE AND HPC...HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ070>074-077>082-088 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY. ...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ045-046-051>056-060>065 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. KY...FLOOD WATCH FOR KYZ089>100 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY. IN...FLOOD WATCH FOR INZ050-058-059 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. ...FLOOD WATCH FOR INZ066-073>075-080 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY. && $$ 699 FXUS64 KMRX 300738 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 340 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA NEAR TUPELO MISSISSIPPI WITH WINDS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH BEING REPORTED AROUND NORTHERN MS AND WEST TN. THE CENTER OF KATRINA APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER FORECASTED...AND THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE INITIALIZED AROUND 30 MILES TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE ACTUAL CENTER. THUS...WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD A FASTER OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL..THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF KATRINA FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...BUT VAD WIND PROFILES FROM KMRX AND KHTX INDICATE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AROUND 3000 FT AGL. WINDS AT CHA AND CSV INCREASED TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS THE RAIN BANDS MOVED THROUGH AND LOWERED THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WILL PLAN TO CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY AND MENTION THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE REACHED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE VALLEY AREAS DURING THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...SOUTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST NC THROUGH TONIGHT...WHERE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SATELLITE IMAGES AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS REVEAL DRIER AREA CIRCULATING AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CENTER OF KATRINA...SO THINK THAT RAIN WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MAINLY SCATTERED IN NATURE BY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS UNTIL THE SYSTEM COMPLETELY EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...THINK A STRONG UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT SLOWLY END TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH KATRINA MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD CREATE STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS TODAY...WHICH SHOULD NOTICEABLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS. A SHORT WAVE THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND KATRINA ON WEDNESDAY... PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS. AS WITH MOST TROPICAL SYSTEMS...INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WILL PLAN TO MENTION MAINLY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTORMS. IN ADDITION...STRONG HELICITY VALUES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SO THINK THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE PAST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 69 86 65 / 100 50 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 69 84 63 / 100 60 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 81 69 85 63 / 100 60 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 68 83 60 / 100 70 30 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC......FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR NCZ060-061. LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR NCZ060-061. TN......FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR TNZ012-013-035-036-067- 081>088-098>102. LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR TNZ012>014-035>041-067>074-081>088- 098>102. VA......NONE. && $$ DMG 589 FXUS63 KLOT 300740 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 240 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EAST OF THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUT SOME PRECIP MAY CLIP THE FAR SE SECTIONS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING THERE. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST SIDE OF KATRINA MOVE THRU THE REGION. SFC PRESSURE STILL QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE 00Z MODELS SHOW SO EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW INDIANA. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH PUSHES THRU THE MIDWEST AND LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR TWO NORTH INTO WI BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS HERE WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW THURS. MAIN AFFECT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE COOLER TEMPS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S BUT BACK NEAR 80 OR THE LOWER 80S INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS FRI MORNING LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S POSSIBLY AN UPPER 40 AT THE TYPICAL COOL LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE CLOSE ON TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM THOUGH HIGHS NEAR 80 OR MAYBE EVEN ONLY UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TODAY WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER. && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. $$ 590 FXUS64 KFWD 300740 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 240 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... IN SHORT...NO RAIN IN THE NEAR FUTURE WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT SLOWLY DROPPING BY THE WEEKEND. REMNANTS OF KATRINA TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SUPPLY OF NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...KEEPING HUMIDITIES LOW AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO MORE NORMAL VALUES. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL HAMPER RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AS WE GET A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND DROP TEMPS. AFTER LAST WEEKS STRETCH OF 100 DEGREE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND NEAR 80 DEGREE MORNING LOWS...THIS WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT...DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN. FOR NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL IMPROVE UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERLIES REMAIN TO THE NORTH...KEEPING THE GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 96 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 97 70 99 70 / 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 93 67 95 68 / 10 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 95 70 98 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 94 71 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 96 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 95 70 98 71 / 10 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 96 70 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 98 72 99 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 75/42 763 FXUS63 KDMX 300743 AFDDMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 245 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERNS ARE TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. WONDER IF KATRINA WILL HAVE ENOUGH LEFT FOR SLOW TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKING AT DYNAMICAL FIELDS NOT THE GREATEST FOR DEVELOPMENT THOUGH SOME HINT AT DRIER PASSAGE OF FRONT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AIRMASS DOES DESTABILIZE AND CAPES INCREASE AS WELL AS SOME DECENT THETA ADVECTION. NOT GREAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT EITHER. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE BELIEVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OVER NW INVOF IN THE MORNING THEN STATEWIDE IN THE AFTN AS FRONT MAYBE SLOWED. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND LOOKING AT SFC TRAJS EXPECT SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW GREATER THAN USUAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP. BEHIND THE FRONT AS ADVERTISED EVEN DRIER AIR SO OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 50S TO EVEN UPPER 40S. BY WEEKEND UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO CENTRAL U.S, AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLOWLY. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ FORSTER 260 FXUS63 KICT 300744 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 244 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN CONVECTION POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED. TODAY-TONIGHT: OUR PROXIMITY TO THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THEREFORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. FOR TONIGHT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT AM NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FEEL CHANCES WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND IT WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE, IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP, SO WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: STILL VERY LITTLE CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVELS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A BIG COOL DOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM ON EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, AS THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLDER AIR INFILTRATING IN BEHIND IT. HOWEVER, STILL CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE AROUND THAN THE MODELS WILL ADMIT TO AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL ENERGY SEEMS FAIRLY WEAK AS THE BRUNT OF IT WILL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH, AND THERE WILL BE A HINT OF SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: FLAT RIDGING BY GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ETA PROMOTE A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OF THE ELEVATED NATURE TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...THOUGH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD DRIFT INTO OUR WESTERN PERIPHERY COUNTIES. WILL KEEP THIS TIME-FRAME DRY FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO WAIT FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE GFS WITH THE FLAT RIDGING OVERHEAD, CONTINUES TO PROMOTE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AGAIN, CONSENSUS AMONG SURROUNDING WEATHER OFFICES IS TOO KEEP SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BUT IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE, THEN OUR TEMPERATURES COULD SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 90 66 88 64 / 0 5 20 20 HUTCHINSON 90 62 86 62 / 0 10 20 20 NEWTON 89 66 86 63 / 0 5 20 20 ELDORADO 89 66 88 63 / 0 5 20 20 WINFIELD-KWLD 91 66 91 64 / 0 5 20 20 RUSSELL 92 63 83 59 / 0 10 20 10 GREAT BEND 92 64 83 60 / 0 10 20 10 SALINA 92 65 85 62 / 0 10 20 10 MCPHERSON 90 64 86 61 / 0 10 20 20 COFFEYVILLE 91 64 91 64 / 0 0 20 20 CHANUTE 88 63 90 63 / 0 0 20 20 IOLA 87 63 89 63 / 0 0 20 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SEDLOCK/ 803 FXUS62 KILM 300745 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 345 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY...WITH A MODERATE RISK JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA (GRAZING MARLBORO COUNTY). HELICITY VALUES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AS THE END RESULT. WILL ISSUE A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF TEMPERATURES CAN CRACK 90 AS GUIDANCE INDICATES THEN HEAT INDICES WOULD RANGE FROM 100-105. PLAN ON INCLUDING THE HEAT INDEX IN THE ZONE TEXT AND WILL ALSO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR HEAT INDICES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. KATRINA IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN MS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...THE BULK OF THE LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS HEATING IS LOST IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND WITH MIXING SUSPECT THAT THE GUIDANCE SPEEDS WILL BE TOO LOW TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT THAT IS TAILING KATRINA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO TREND LOWER DURING WED NIGHT...HOWEVER WILL NOT SEE THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASSES UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... GFS SHOWING BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LACKING...HOWEVER LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THEN FROM NEW ENGLAND. && .AVIATION... OTHER THAN A BRIEF ENCOUNTER WITH MVFR VIS AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT KFLO...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THRU 06Z WED. INCLUDED GUSTS BOTH IN AND OUT OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AT KFLO...LATER SHIFTS MAY YET NEED TO TWEAK SPEEDS UP FURTHER. && .MARINE... S/SW WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE WATERS TODAY...AS THE KATRINA CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BROADEN. NOT FEELING TOO CONFIDENT ABOUT THE MODEL HANDLING OF WINDS...AS KCAE/KCLX VWPS SHOW A 25 KT LLJ ALREADY ESTABLISHED. MIXING IS...AS USUAL...AN ISSUE IN THE MARINE LAYER. BEST I DID FOR SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE GRIDS IS 18 KT...BUT FIGURE JUST ENOUGH GUSTINESS TO MAKE IT WORTH FORCING MENTION OF 20 KT. THE STRONG SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU WED...WITH FROPA NOW SLATED FOR WED NIGHT AS MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER IN LINE WITH THE QUICKER FORWARD SPEED OF KATRINA. BENIGN N/NE FLOW EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. WW3 DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON 11-12 SEC SE SWELL MAKING IT INTO ALL THE BUOYS AND USC WAVE GAGE AT SPRINGMAID PIER. FORTUNATELY THE POWER OF THIS SWELL IS STILL QUITE LOW...AND HEIGHTS PORTRAYED IN WW3 GUIDANCE ARE NOT TOO FAR OUT OF LINE. WILL ADD A FOOT AT MOST...COMBINING WITH THE WIND WAVE TO GIVE US A MARGINAL SCA FOR SEAS TONIGHT (INTO WED FOR MY NC WATERS). RIP RISK CURRENTLY RUNNING LOW...BUT THE SWELL BEARS WATCH AS ANY INCREASE IN HEIGHT OR POWER MAY PUSH US TO MODERATE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AMZ250-252 TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AMZ254-256 TONIGHT && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...PFAFF AVIATION/MARINE...RAS 244 FXUS61 KBTV 300747 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 347 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE. THIS FEATURE HELPED ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST...FEATURE WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION NOW MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AND THIS SHOULD KEEP BULK OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DRY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS RUTLAND... WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES. ONCE THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXISTS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISMS TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY MENTION A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. A DISTINCT BREAK EXISTS BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE UP IN QUEBEC PROVINCE AND THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE KATRINA...WHICH SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT OF QUIET WEATHER BEFORE STEADIER RAINS MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL MENTION CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF KATRINA TRACK RIGHT OVER THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK BETWEEN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AND HELP TO MIX THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WILL MENTION BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AND MENTION WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL THEREFORE BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE REMAINS OF KATRINA. LOOKING AT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. IF THERE ARE ANY ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. WILL CONTINUE IDEA FROM DAY SHIFT AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REGARDING THIS EVENT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER HIGH...3 INCHES IN ONE HOUR AND 6 INCHES IN 6 HOURS...AND SO FEEL FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAM VERSUS ANY OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. BULK OF MOISTURE FROM KATRINA WILL EXIT THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY AND GOING FORECAST HAS ALL OF THESE IDEAS COVERED WELL AT THIS TIME. THUS NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION... VFR TO MVFR COND FOR ALL SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING LOW CLDS W/ RAIN/FG THRU THIS MORNING FOR ALL AREAS. AFT 15Z...ALL SITES WILL SEE DECR IN LOW CLD DECK BUT WILL REMAIN IN AFOREMENTIONED CATEGORIES. WINDS LIGHT THRU 13Z-14Z THEN INCR OUT OF S IN VT...SW IN N NY...5 TO 15KTS. HIR TRRN WILL BE OBSCD. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION..........JN 917 FXUS64 KBRO 300749 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 300 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO HIT THE CENTURY MARK OR ABOVE IN MANY INLAND LOCATIONS. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT ALONG THE COAST TO INITIATE A SEA BREEZE...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN MORE WELL DEVELOPED AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS. DOWN THE ROAD...THE GFS SHOWS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TRIGGERING CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. INCREASED POPS ARE REFLECTED ALONG THE RIVER DURING THAT TIME AS A RESULT. MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES BACK EAST AND OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND...BUT IS FLATTENED AND PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BY PROGRESSIVE WAVES MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST. MORE SUMMER WEATHER WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED...WITH THE FORECAST OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK PERIOD. && .MARINE...BUOY020 REPORTED SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 4 FEET WITH A 10 SEC PERIOD. SWELLS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY...WITH LOW SEAS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS WILL ALLOW SEABREEZE FRONT TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INLAND. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 800 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005...THERE ARE INNUMERABLE BOUNDARIES CAUSED BY A NUMBER OF DYNAMICS THIS EVENING...AND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...KATRINA WAS THE CULPRIT. ALTHOUGH A RELATIVELY STABLE AMS IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH WEST FLOW ALOFT...SFC AND LLVL WIND FIELDS WERE DRIVEN CONTRARY TO THEIR NORMS WITH RECORD-SETTING TEMPERATURES ADDING ANOTHER VARIABLE. SHRAS/TSRAS WERE FIRED BEHIND THE SEABREEZE FNT LATE THIS PM... SOAKING WILLACY AND NRN CAMERON AND BRINGING NORTH WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH FM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MVG NORTH TO SOUTH. A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 101 DEGREES WAS SET AT MCALLEN TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 100 SET IN 1946. A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES WAS SET AT BROWNSVILLE ALSO...BREAKING A VERY OLD RECORD OF 101 SET IN 1899. HRL REACHED 100. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS SUBSIDING NOW...BOUNDARIES ARE MVG INTO NRN BROOKS AND JIM HOGG...WITH MORE BOUNDARIES JUST NORTH OF LRD MVG QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP TOKEN POPS IN FCST FOR ALL AREAS UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW 97 79 97 79 94 79 / 20 00 10 00 20 00 BROWNSVILLE 100 78 97 79 95 78 / 20 00 10 00 20 00 FALFURRIAS 100 76 103 76 98 76 / 00 00 00 00 00 00 HARLINGEN 101 77 99 76 96 77 / 20 00 10 00 20 00 HEBBRONVILLE 103 78 104 76 97 75 / 00 00 00 00 00 00 MCALLEN 103 80 103 78 97 79 / 00 00 00 00 00 00 PORT ISABEL 95 80 95 80 92 77 / 20 00 10 00 20 00 RIO GRANDE CITY 106 78 103 78 97 76 / 00 00 00 00 00 00 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 94 83 93 82 92 81 / 20 00 10 20 00 00 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 54/55 THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO 348 FXUS63 KDTX 300750 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 350 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO EXISTING FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDED FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH LAST EVENING...AND MAY HELP DO SO AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM KATRINA LIFTS NORTH...ALTHOUGH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW TROUGH GETTING ABSORBED INTO CIRCULATION FROM KATRINA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN LAKES REGION HELD AT BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WRFXX WINDS TENDING ONLY SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN GFS...AND SOME SORT OF BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS PROBABLY IN ORDER...GIVEN BETTER CONTINUITY OF LATE THAN NAM. AT 500 MB...LOW JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY MOVING LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE KATRINA MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN LAKES REGION. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPING NORTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND RESIDING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST BULGING NORTHWARD INTO AREA OF THETA E RIDGE. FRINGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT MOST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH WRFXX AND GFS NOT SHOWING MUCH SUCH LIFT FOR SOUTHEAST MI. MUCH OF FORECAST AREA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 MB JET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT....THOUGH...AND VERY MODEST 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE CLIPPING SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN PLACE. THUS...WILL LEAVE IN CURRENT TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION. WILL TWEAK WORDING A TAD FOR LESS EMPHASIS ON THUNDER...HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AT BEST. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE EFFECTS OF KATRINA WILL FADE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION IS SLATED FOR ARRIVAL LATE THURSDAY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS IN ITS WAKE. THE GFS HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKES REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 105 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 ) AVIATION... HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE ALREADY EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD HOLD OFF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR KJYM TO KBAX. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. LOOKING AT THE SURFACE OBS... IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE DETROIT AREA IS GOING TO DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCH FOG AS WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 9KTS. SO WILL DOWNPLAY THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE TAFS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF KATRINA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND LOWER CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUES EVENING AND STILL LOOK TO IMPACT MAINLY DETROIT AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY-LHZ441-LHZ442- LHZ443...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ422-LCZ460...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWD LONG TERM....MANN 869 FXUS63 KOAX 300751 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 250 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL IN SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SIMILAR IDEA IN HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM COMING ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS SINCE BOTH MODELS SHOW BEST UPPER SUPPORT TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH GFS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH MID LEVEL TROF AT 700MB...ITS ALSO FASTER IN MOVING OUT THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AT BOTH 850 AND 700MB WHICH REMAINS LIMITED TO FRONTAL ZONE. AS SUCH WILL LEAVE CURRENT LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IS WITH ONLY SOME MINOR AREAL ADJUSTMENT TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THIS TIME. NEXT FRONT INDICATED BY EXTENDED MODELS COMES INTO AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT DECIDE IF ANY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && FOBERT 085 FXUS63 KTOP 300757 AFDTOP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 257 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS EASTERN KANSAS IN AREA BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA AND RIDGE FROM SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. SOME CLOUDS AROUND CIRCULATION OF KATRINA HAVE MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 77. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT RANGE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGE NUDGING INTO EASTERN KANSAS GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAYS HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT OVER PREVIOUS RUNS. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED TO BASICALLY WHAT THE SYSTEM BRINGS WITH IT AS FLOW AROUND KATRINA HAS THE GULF ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN SOUTH TEXAS. HAVE PRESERVED A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MAKES IT'S WAY ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT BY A FEW DEGREES. NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS TIMING OF IMPULSES DIFFICULT AND NEW GFS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF IN EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 427 FXUS63 KBIS 300758 AFDBIS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 300 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN NAM. GFS MUCH WEAKER ON CAPE THAN NAM. AGREE WITH CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK THAT WILL SEE MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TROUGH AND THAT STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES. WILL ALSO BUMP TEMPS UP A LITTLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE THICKNESSES IS ABOVE 579 DM AND 850 TEMPS ARE 24 DGRS AND HIGHER. COULD SEE NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH. GFS IS SHOWING 6 MB RISE IN 6 HRS WITH STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT SEE LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WITH STRONG GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND IT'S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO SUNNY DAYS AND MILD TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MAJORITY OF LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY BUT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN CWA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ON STALLED FRONT...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA STILL LOOKS IN LINE...SO KEPT THINGS AS THEY WERE. ONLY OTHER CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WERE TO RAISE MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES A BIT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THERMAL RIDGING LOOKS PRETTY STRONG IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ TSW/TWH 420 FXUS64 KOUN 300759 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 259 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... WILL REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDING KATRINA TODAY. AS KATRINA MOVES OFF TOWARD THE NE... UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH SFC FRONT SOUTH TOWARD AREA. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS AREA WED NIGHT... BUT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND NOT THE BEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL HOWEVER LEAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS N WED NIGHT AS WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF ROCKIES COULD SEE A FEW MID LEVEL SHOWERS SKIRT ACROSS THAT PART OF STATE. OTHERWISE... MOST OF WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ALLOW COOLER NIGHT TIME TEMPS. WILL ALSO REMOVE LOW POPS FOR NEXT SAT NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL KEEPING STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF AREA. NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 92 65 93 66 / 0 0 0 10 HOBART OK 93 65 94 65 / 0 0 0 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 95 67 97 68 / 0 0 0 10 GAGE OK 92 61 90 60 / 0 0 0 20 PONCA CITY OK 92 64 91 63 / 0 0 0 20 DURANT OK 93 68 95 69 / 10 0 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 30 858 FXUS64 KLUB 300759 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 300 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... DRIER SINKING AIR WILL BE OVER WEST TEXAS TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THIS EVENING. THE NORTHERN PLAINS MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WILL ASSIST IN DEEPENING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. DONT EXPECT WINDS TO GET HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 MPH. DRIER AIR AND VIRTUALLY FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO ATTAIN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO BLOCK OUT ANY SUNSHINE SO HAVE GONE CLEAR IN THE GRIDS. THIS DRIER AIR WILL HELP THE REGION COOL QUICKLY IN THE EVENING BUT BELIEVE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH...WILL KEEP THE CWA FROM RADIATING AS MUCH AS THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE A 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED HIGHS FOR THIS MORNING. .LONG TERM... 00Z MODEL RUN INDICATES UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT HEIGHTS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW WARMUP OVER THE CWFA. MODELS SHOW FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN PROVINCES OF CANADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS TO AID IN PUSHING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT THINK FRONT TO STALL OVER THE CENTRAL FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE TO STILL BE LACKING...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT APPEAR ON TRACK AND SEE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE UPPER RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE CWFA. HOWEVER GFS INDICATED A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO COME ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THIS FEATURE CAN GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWFA. FOR NOW WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE ADDING POPS TO THE SOUTHERN CWFA. MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE START OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK AND ADVANCING TOWARD THE FA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE RETAINED A DRY FORECAST...BUT WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK EVOLVES. XI && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 89 58 88 57 / 0 0 20 20 TULIA 89 58 89 59 / 0 0 20 20 PLAINVIEW 89 60 90 62 / 0 0 20 20 LEVELLAND 90 60 93 63 / 0 0 10 10 LUBBOCK 91 62 93 64 / 0 0 10 20 BROWNFIELD 93 62 94 65 / 0 0 10 10 CHILDRESS 93 63 95 65 / 0 0 20 20 SPUR 92 62 95 66 / 0 0 10 10 ASPERMONT 94 65 96 67 / 0 0 10 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 18/11 321 FXUS63 KIND 300804 AAA AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 300 AM EST TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATED DISCUSSION...AFTER LOOKING AT GFS AND HPC QPF...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY TO THE N ADDING BROWN...MONROE...RUSH AND SHEBLY COUNTIES. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF KATRINA AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER ACRS CNTRL INDIANA TODAY AND TNGT WL BE BY FAR THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FCST. KATRINA IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM ATTM. HER POSITION WAS JUST E OF TUPELO MS AT 04Z PER H20 VAPOR IMAGERY. SAT ECLIPSE...SPARCE SFC DATA MAKES EXACT POSITION AT 06Z DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...ALTHOUGH BASED ON MOTION OVR THE PREVIOUS FEW H20 VAPOR PICS WAS LIKELY ACRS XTRM NWRN AL AT 06Z. THIS MESHES WELL WITH THE FCST TRACK OF THE NHC AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NE OF THE QUICKEST 06Z GFS PROG. NAM/NGM MUCH SLOWER OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS...WHILE GFS AND UKMET QUICKER AND CLOSER TO THE NHC TRACK. ASSOCIATED TIMING OF POPS AND QPF OF THE GFS ALSO ARE REAL CLOSE TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S IND FCST COUTESY OF IWX. SO...WL NOT MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES BUT ONLY MINOR TINKERING. REGIONAL RADAR PIX WERE SHOWING BULK OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA ACRS THE WRN HALF OF TN AND LIFTING NWD. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RN TO BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE NE ALONG WITH THE TRACK OF KATRINA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE AROUND UPR VORTEX JUST S OF HUDSON BAY AND TO NEAR CINCINNATI BY 00Z THIS EVE AND INTO FAR WRN NY BY 12Z WED. GFS AND HPC CONT TO FCST NEAR 4 INCHES ACRS OUR XTRM SERN FA TAPERING OFF TO ONLY ABOUT A QUARTER INCH NW COUNTIES. BULK OF THE PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO SERN INDIANA THIS MRNG AND ECNTRL INDIANA BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP TO DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER DARK AS SYSTEM EXITS NE. WL KEEP SMALL MRNG POPS ON WED IN PER CURRENT FCST IN CASE GFS IS A BIT TOO FAST...BUT DON'T EXPECT MUCH AT ALL THEN. MODELS SHOWING HIGH HELICITY VALUES (400 UNITS/SEC SQUARED) TODAY AND TNGT ESP ACRS ERN FA TODAY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY LACKING WITH LI'S ONLY 0 TO -1. SO...ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE A LOT OF SPIN...AGREE WITH SPC IN KEEPING THE TORNADO THREAT JUST TO OUR E TODAY. SO...WL KEEP WIDESPREAD RAIN BUT ONLY ISOLATED TRW'S GOING. MUCH DRIER AIR...SFC RIDGE AND ZONAL FLOW TO SPREAD ACRS THE FA FM THE W WED PM WHICH WL ALLOW SKIES TO CLR. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS DRY WITH MN LVL RH'S MOSTLY 30-40% THROUGH LABOR DAY. WITH CLDS AND PRECIP ROLLING IN TODAY...AM IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MUCH COOLER MOS NUMBERS. WENT WITH COOLER FWC/GFS TNGT WITH N WINDS COMING IN BEHIND KATRINA. FINALLY...WITH SOME LATE DAY SS ON WED...PREFER MIX OF THE WARMER MET AND GFS. .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WASHINGTON TO CARTHAGE LINE. && $$ KOCH 432 FXUS64 KSJT 300810 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 310 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING...WITH KATRINA WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE OFF TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...AND ARE NOT TOO FAR ABOVE CURRENT DEWPOINT READINGS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE LIGHT FOG DEVELOP BY SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. .LONG TERM... UPPER RIDGE TAKES CONTROL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH WET GROUNDS SHOULD HOLD THE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 95 68 95 69 / 0 0 0 0 SAN ANGELO 93 67 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 JUNCTION 95 66 95 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 07 736 FXUS64 KLCH 300810 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 310 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH AXIS...THAT WILL BE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THE INSTABILITY PRODUCED AHEAD OF HIS TROUGH TO WORK WIT. WILL CALL FOR ONLY A LIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN EXTREMES OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MOISTURE IS ONLY MODERATE IN THAT AREA THIS MORNING AND DRYING IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. BEYOND THAT...IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA...DRY AIR IS SUPPOSED TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE AREA....BEGINNING TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERMS OF THE FORECAST. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE SLIGHT AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION... VFR. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 94 71 97 74 / 10 0 10 10 KBPT 95 71 98 75 / 10 0 10 10 KAEX 94 69 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 KLFT 93 74 96 74 / 10 0 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 352 FXUS64 KTSA 300811 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 311 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... ALL EYES ARE ON KATRINA WHICH IS NOW TURNING TO THE EAST AWAY FROM HERE. PART OF REASON IT IS TURNING IS BECAUSE OF A SHARP LEVEL SYSTEM THAT IS HEADED INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HEAD EAST THE NEXT FEW DAY EVENTUALLY DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. TIMING FOR THE FRONT TO BE CROSSING THE AREA WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS BASICALLY NO MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE POPS. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH 20S BECAUSE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW LITLE OR NO QPF. THE UPPER WAVE WILL THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LEAVING BEHIND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD BECAUSE 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAY ABOUT THE SAME AS DO THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS. BOTH THE NAM MOS AND GFS MOS ARE TRENDED THAT WAY AND I KIND OF MIXED AND MATCHED THEM TO MAKE THE GRIDS LOOK THE WAY I WANTED THEM TOO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 92 63 94 67 / 0 0 0 20 FSM 97 64 95 68 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 93 64 95 65 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 93 59 92 61 / 0 0 0 20 FYV 90 59 91 60 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 85 60 90 64 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 93 64 93 66 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 90 59 93 63 / 0 0 0 20 F10 91 63 92 65 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 97 67 97 68 / 0 0 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 4 LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 17 747 FXUS62 KMHX 300813 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 413 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION STILL EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN ARC OF SHOWERS MOVING NW ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS/PAMLICO SOUND. I WILL INITIALIZE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST POPS OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT HIGHEST POPS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRINGES OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WHICH WILL BE MOVING WEST OF THE MTS. SPS HAS ENTIRE REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...BUT BETTER INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CAPE VALUES ACROSS OUR REGION VS AREAS TO THE WEST. THUS STRONGER STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH WET MICROBURTS AND EVEN AN ISOLD TORNADO POSSIBLE. VERY HIGH DEWPOINT/TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND WITH TEMPS AROUND 90...WHICH WILL PRODUCE HI VALUES OF 100-105 THIS AFTERNOON. KATRINA WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WED WHERE IT WILL BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. DEEPEST RH IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS TONIGHT INTO WED AFTERNOON THEN DECREASES LATE WED/WED NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. FORCING WILL BE WEAK TONIGHT AND WED AND HAVE LIMITED POPS TO 30-40%. WITH PW AOA 2.25" THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL EXIST. DRY WX OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD FLOOD POTENTIAL AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY WITH CONCENTRATED RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH KRISTINA REMAINING TO THE WEST. HIGHS ON WED ARE FORECAST INTO THE LOWER 90S AND WITH TROPICAL AIR STILL IN PLACE...HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110 WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A HEAT ADVY MAY BE NEEDED. STRONGER FORCING IS INDICATED WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH/REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SIG HEIGHT FALLS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...BUT MOIST DEPTH WILL BE LOW AND NEITHER THE NAM OR GFS IS FORECASTING MUCH QPF ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE I WILL HAVE ONLY 30 POPS WED NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS CAN TWEAK UP IF MOIST DEPTH INCREASES. THE GFS IS FASTER IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORECASTED HEIGHT FALLS/STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW AND NORTH AND PROMISES SEVERAL DAYS OF COOLER...DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. DEEP ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL PROABLY BRING RAINFALL TO THE COASTAL REGIONS SOUTH OF NC. THE GFS IS FORECASTING THE SFC HIGH TO BE STNRY OVER THE NE AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE COAST AND THIS SHOULD PROTECT NC FROM RAIN ALTHOUGH IT IS TRYING TO DEVELOP PCPN ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE ALSO INDICATING LOW PRES DEVELOPING IN VCNTY OF THE BAHAMAS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ATTM. && .AVIATION...IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE OCCURRING ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEGIN TO LIFT. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS. && .MARINE...SOUTHEAST FLOW CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SPEEDS ARE 12 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AOB 4 FT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW FROM KATRINA SPREADS OVER THE REGION. GFS HAS THE BEST HANDLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE. SCA IS POSTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WINDS SOMEWHAT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS NOW BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH SHOULD RESULT IN SEAS REACHING 6 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS SOUTH OF LOOKOUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EXPANDING NORTHWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REMNANT LOW FROM KATRINA RACES NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SPEEDS DIMINISHING. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED WILL SEE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 12 KT OR LESS AND SEAS AOB 4 AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR AMZ158 FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM THURSDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR AMZ150-152-154-156 FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM THURSDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...ELARDO LONG TERM...ELARDO AVIATION...WINGENROTH MARINE...WINGENROTH 363 FXUS64 KHGX 300813 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 310 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM KATRINA EXTENDING WEST TOWARD TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. CWFA CONVECTION FREE WITH ONLY A FEW MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAS LOWERED TO NEAR 70 NORTHERN ZONES. PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING INLAND. GOES SOUNDER LOOP INDICATE PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES COASTAL REGION AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER NORTHWARD. 200 MB LEVEL STILL INDICATE DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER REGION AND 500 MB TROUGH LINE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SEABREEZE SETTING UP MID AFTERNOON TODAY AND STAYING MAINLY OVER COASTAL ZONES. WE SHALL INTRODUCE ISOLATED POPS COASTAL REGION ONLY FOR TODAY. PW VALUES WILL LOWER TO NEAR 1.3 INCHES TOMORROW AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.8 INCHES FRIDAY. PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH INDICATED TO BECOME WEAKER OVER REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD FROM SW CONUS. MODELS AGREE ON HAVING UPPER HIGH OVER REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF TEXAS INDICATED BY GFS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AT LEAST FOR THE INLAND AREAS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING POPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY (ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST OF REGION) MOVING FROM THE NORTH. 37 && .MARINE... SEAS ARE NOW DOWN TO AROUND 2 FEET. EXPECT THESE HEIGHTS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL FORECAST WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS UNDER A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE COULD SEE SOME INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE. 42 && .AVIATION... WILL KEEP AREA TAFS DRY TODAY DUE TO DECREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. COULD GET A WEAK SEABREEZE FRONT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS HAPPENS...WE MIGHT SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW THE SEABREEZE FRONT IN THIS AFTERNOON'S PORTION OF ALL BUT THE CLL TAF. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR PERHAPS CALM OVERNIGHT. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 72 100 73 98 / 10 0 0 0 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 98 74 98 74 96 / 10 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 95 81 94 82 94 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 411 FXUS61 KPHI 300813 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 415 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .OVERVIEW... OUR TIME OF RECKONING WITH THE RMNTS OF KATRINA IS ARRIVING AS WE WILL HAVE THE PTNL FOR HVY RAIN AND SVR WX BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE WED NGT. THE GFS RMNS THE MDL OF CHOICE AS IT RMNS CLOSE TO TPC/S FCST TRACK AND THE NAM HAS JUST NOT HANDLED THIS PAT WELL AT ALL. ITS 03Z FCSTD POSN OF KATRINA IS ALRDY 45 MILES TOO FAR TO THE SW AND THE LAG JUST CONTS FROM THERE. WE BLV THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HVYR RAIN WILL OCR THIS AFTN AND EVE AS DAYTIME HEATG COUPLED WITH WEAK WAA AND BANDS FOR KATRINA (MAYBE THIS FAR E) ASSIST IN THE HVY RAIN PROCESS. THE SVR PTNL LTR TDY MAY COME IN THE FORM OF ISOLD TORNADOES/SVR TSRA WITH THE GREATER THREAT SW OF OUR CWA. SVR/HVY RAIN PTNL WED IS OF THE MORE TYPICAL TYPE IF ONE CAN SAY THAT AS A CFP SWEEPS THE TROPICAL AIR MASS AWAY AND THE INCIPIENT WIND FIELD IS STGR THAN USUAL AND MORE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. HVY RAIN PTNL OUTSIDE OF TRAINING S/B DIMINISHED AS CELLS S/B MOVG FASTER. WED LOOKS SIM TO SVR WX EVENTS THAT FOLLOWED THE PASSAGE OF A HURRICANE OR ITS RMNTS TO OUR W IN THE PAST NOTABLY THE AFTERMATH OF FRAN ON 9/8/1996 AND (THE SYNOPTIC PAT IS NOT THE SAME WITH THIS NEXT ONE SINCE IT HAD A STG NEG TILT TROF) ISABEL ON 9/23/2003. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... WE HAVE CHASING THE HVY RAIN PTNL WITH RESPECT TO THE TROP CONNECTION AND THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA AND IT APRS WE WILL CATCH UP WITH IT TDY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FCSTG A RATHER BROAD AREA OF WEAK WAA THRUT THE DAYTIME HRS TDY WITH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE REACHED AND A DECENT SHRTWV MOVG THRU DURG THE AFTN. THE 00Z UA H8 ANLYSIS DID SHOW A 3C GRAD S OF OUR CWA AND WITH THIS JUICY AN AIR MASS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH. IF THERE IS A SAVING GRACE FOR TDY WITH RESPECT TO THE HVY RAIN...IT WILL BE THAT THE H2.5 JET IS FCST TO LIFT N INTO CANADA AND WITH IT THE GREATER THETA E ADVT/EVEN SOME FGEN FRCG INTENSIFIES N OF OUR CWA. WE HAVE BEEN FORTUNATE ALSO THAT THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH HVY RAIN AT ALL LEADING INTO TDY AND ALL OF OUR CWA/S CTY FFG IS ONCE AGAIN AOA 3"/HR. THUS SHRA/TSRA APPEAR LKLY WITH THE GREATEST POPS IN THE NRN PART OF OUR CWA WHERE THE WAA/FGEN FRCG INCREASES THE MOST. THE OTHER FACTOR FOR TDY IS THE SVR WX PTNL. THE GFS HAS BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT IN INCRG HEL VALUES TWD EVE. THEIR 0-3KM HEL VALUES OF 120-280M2/S2 (E-W) HAVE NOT WAVERED MUCH AND THE LOWEST 0-1KM VALUES 75-170M2/S2 ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO CAUSE THE CUMULONIMBI AMONG OTHER ELEMENTS TO SPIN. THE LOW EXPECTED LCL IS ALSO DISCONCERTING. RADAR MET LAST EVE SAID THE SHRAS WERE ALRDY ROTATING. DILEMMA IS THAT THE HIEST HEL VALUES IN OUR CWA ARE WITH THE LEAST AMT OF FCSTD CAPE. THE GFS INCRS THE HEL VALUES BY DVLPG SFC TROFFING S OF US TDY AND ADVECTING IT NWD BY EVE. EVEN THE GFS HAS HAD ISSUES WITH THIS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH ITS PERSISTENCE. ANOTHER SAVING GRACE IS THAT ARE MANY MORE CLOUDS S OF US TDY THAN YDA AND MORE MID LVL CLDS WILL BE MOVG NEWD (TU RAY). SO THE SUN WHICH IS DEFINITELY NOT OUR FRIEND TDY MAY HAVE A HARDER TIME BREAKING OUT. THE LESS WE SEE OF IT...THE BETTER OFF WE WILL BE. WE WILL CONT THE SPS CONCERNING BOTH THE SVR AND HVY RAIN PTNL. DON/T WANT TO HIT THE TORNADO WORDING TOO HARD ATTM AS WE WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE AND THERE ARE SOME NEG FACTORS. WE WERE WARMER THAN THE GUID DATASETS YDA AND WITH AN ABT 90 PTNL IF TDY WAS TOTALLY SUNNY...WE WILL GO A BIT ABV MOS GUID. TRIGGERING MECH LIFTS NWD OVRNGT AND WOULD SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE GREATER PCPN CHCS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NGT THAN OVRNGT. THE SVR WX THREAT OVRNGT TO OUR S DIMINISHED AND WITH ANOTHER DAY REMOVED FROM THE GULF WOULD THINK (HOPE) SO SHLD OURS. MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG REASON AS AXIS OF MAX HEL DOES LIFT INTO NY STA OVRNGT. STILL DON/T SEE THOSE DEWPTS GFS MOS IS FCSTG AND WILL LEAN TWD THE NAM DEWS WHICH LOOK MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF UPSTREAM CONDS. ON WED...ONE COULD NOT ASK FOR A MUCH BETTER FCSTD COUPLET FOR SVR WX AS CWA WILL BE ON W SIDE OF A STG FOR AUG LLJ AND EXIT RGN OF H2.5 JET ARRIVES DURG THE LATE AFTN/EVE. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE THAT IT IS PRETTY WARM ALF AND SO FAR THE GFS IS FCSTG RATHER MEAGER INSTABILITY WITH ONLY ABT 500J AND BALMY 4.5C/KM MID LVL LAPSE RATES. GFS STILL FCSTG 0-3KM HEL VALUES OF 150-200M2/S2. THIS MIGHT BE OVERDONE...BUT BLV THE LLVL INSTAB IS UNDERDONE AS WITH ANY SUN LO 90S ARE DOABLE. SO AGREE WITH SPC/S ASSESSMENT TO PLACE US IN SLGT RISK FOR TMRW. ON A CLIMAT NOTE WE HAVE BEEN HIT PRETTY HARD ON DAYS WITH CFPS FLWG THE WWD PASSAGE OF A TROP SYS. MAYBE I DON/T REMEMBER THE ONES THAT DID NOT GO THAT WAY...BUT THE ONES THAT DID WERE TWO NASTY DAYS. FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY SOME ENHANCED...BUT NOT SVR WORDING. WE WILL TALK ABT THE SVR PTNL IN THE SPS/HWO. WOULD THINK HVY RAIN PTNL WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE FASTER FLOW ALF. WE WILL HAVE TO REACCESS THIS IF PCPN BCMS HVYR THAN EXPECTED TDY/TNGT AND DROP FFG VALUES. LASTLY MAX TEMP/DEWPTS MIGHT BRING HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO HEAT ADVY CRIT FOR OUR URBANIZED LOCNS. AM NOT GOING TO BOX LATER SHIFTS IN WITH THIS AS IT IS BORDERLINE AND AT THE END OF A LONG HOT SUMMER. LOOKS LIKE A ONE DAY EVENT ALSO. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE...BUT WILL SEGMENT SPS TO MAKE MNTN OF THE PSBLTY IN URBAN ZONES. FASTER GFS SOLN WILL MERCIFULLY BRING A QUICKER END TO THIS WED NGT AND WILL END ALL PCPN BY THU MRNG. && .LONG TERM (THU THROUGH MON)... CDFNT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN ON NW WINDS. A SECOND DRY FRONT SWINGS THROUGH BY SUNDAY. WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE REFRESHING. && .AVIATION... MAINLY IFR AT THIS HOUR DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. THIS SHOULD CARRY US THROUGH DAYBREAK. VSBY'S ARE UP COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH ALL TERMINALS POSTING 10'S. THE EXPECTATION FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS PREVAILING VFR EVERYWHERE, BUT PLAN ON SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS. && .MARINE... NO REAL CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THIS PACKAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF EX-KATRINA AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND HIGH. WW LOOKS GOOD WITH 6 FOOT NEARSHORE SEAS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE FOR SCA CONDITIONS STARTING TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER FROPA LATE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. && .TIDES... EVEN AS WE APPROACH A NEW MOON, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY TIDAL FLOODING IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES FORECAST TO REACH 1/2 TO AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR US TO RUN INTO ANY PROBLEMS, WE'LL NEED AT LEAST +1 1/2 FOOT DEPARTURES. $$ .HYDROLOGY... FFG HAS NUDGED UPWD AGN AS ALL COUNTIES ARE AOA 3"/HR. HVYST PCPN PTNL FROM KATRINA SHLD OCR TUE/TUE NGT AS HER MOISTURE GETS INGESTED INTO THE BROAD SWRLY FLOW. WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2"...AT LEAST LOCALIZED AMTS TO 4" RMN WITHIN THE REALM OF PTNL. GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN OF LATE IF ANY FLDG DOES IT OCR...IT WOULD BE MORE OF A SMALLER STREAM CONCERN AND NOT A MAIN STEM ONE. THE EMPHASIS FOR HVYR PCN WITH THE LATEST MDL RUNS RMNS CLSR TO THE JET OVR CANADA AND NEW ENG AND THUS OVR OUR NRN ZONES. && .MISCELLANEOUS... WAY BACK WHEN ANALUGS ARE US COMPARED THE APR/MAY 2005 TEMP COUPLET AND SAW HOW THE ENSUING SUMMERS WERE. WELL THIS BUSTED BIG TIME AS THIS SUMMER WILL END (IN PHL) IN THE TOP 10 WARMEST AND MUCH WARMER THAN ANY OF THE PREV ANALOG YEARS. WE/LL PBLY GET MORE MID SHIFTS BECAUSE OF THIS AND WE WON/T QUIT OUR DAY JOB IF WE HAD ONE. THIS IS FOR PHL INTL. YEAR JUN JUL AUG AVG TEMP TOTAL PCPN 1878 67.4 77.6 73.9 73.0 11.84 1891 71.8 71.9 74.3 72.7 11.38 1915 69.6 76.0 73.1 72.9 15.31 1925 78.0 76.2 74.8 76.3 8.16 1938 71.3 77.2 78.4 75.6 20.68 1945 71.5 76.0 74.1 73.9 16.38 1952 74.7 80.1 75.2 76.7 11.95 1954 72.9 77.9 73.5 74.8 8.69 1958 67.8 77.4 73.4 72.9 17.31 1960 70.6 73.3 74.5 72.8 9.42 1968 71.2 77.1 77.8 75.4 9.13 AVG 71.5 76.4 74.8 74.2 12.75 SUM 2005 SO FAR 74.8 78.9 79.6 77.8 10.16 THRU 8/28 1971-2000 NML 72.3 77.6 76.3 75.4 12.03 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. $$ OVERVIEW/SHORT TERM...GIGI LONG TERM...EBERWINE AVIATION/MARINE/TIDES...KRUZDLO HYDROLOGY...GIGI 925 FXUS63 KLSX 300814 CCA AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN QUESTION THIS MORNING IS IF CWA WILL SEE ANY RAIN FROM TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. 00Z RUN OF THE GFS HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION... PARTICULARLY WITH KATRINA COMPARED TO THE NAM. THIS MAY EXPLAIN WHY THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM WAS MUCH SLOWER IN MOVING THE SFC LOW NEWD COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS AND EVEN IT'S NEW 06Z RUN. WILL GO WITH THE GFS WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST TRACK PUT OUT BY TPC/NHC AT 03Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE KATRINA'S PCPN SHEILD IS ALMOST TO THE SERN BORDER OF THE CWA AT 08Z. GIVEN THAT KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO RACE NEWD THIS MORNING...THINK THAT ONLY THE FIRST TWO TIER OF COUNTIES WILL SEE RAIN...SO HAVE A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN LIKELY POPS AND NIL OVER THE SERN HALF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WILL THEN BACK OFF TO JUST CHC POPS EXCEPT IN THE FAR ERN COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTN. GFS IS A BIT WEAK WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT 06Z OVER MO/IL...SO THINK WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAS. SUBSIDENCE SETS IN TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD NEWD. NAM/GFS AGREE WITH BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...THOUGHT LACK OF MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT FORCING PRECLUDE INTRODUCING CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS MOS TEMP GUIDANCE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP THE SERN COUNTIES IN THE 70S TODAY. NAM TEMPS LOOK A BIT COOL FOR THURSDAY GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ BRITT 094 FXUS63 KLSX 300814 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN QUESTION THIS MORNING IS IF CWA WILL SEE ANY RAIN FROM TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. 00Z RUN OF THE GFS HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION... PARTICULARLY WITH KATRINA COMPARED TO THE NAM. THIS MAY EXPLAIN WHY THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM WAS MUCH SLOWER IN MOVING THE SFC LOW NEWD COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS AND EVEN IT'S NEW 06Z RUN. WILL GO WITH THE GFS WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST TRACK PUT OUT BY TPC/NHC AT 03Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE KATRINA'S PCPN SHEILD IS ALMOST TO THE SERN BORDER OF THE CWA AT 08Z. GIVEN THAT KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO RACE NEWD THIS MORNING...THINK THAT ONLY THE FIRST TWO TIER OF COUNTIES WILL SEE RAIN...SO HAVE A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN LIKELY POPS AND NIL OVER THE SERN HALF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WILL THEN BACK OFF TO JUST CHC POPS EXCEPT IN THE FAR ERN COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTN. GFS IS A BIT WEAK WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT 06Z OVER MO/IL...SO THINK WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAS. SUBSIDENCE SETS IN TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD NEWD. NAM/GFS AGREE WITH BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...THOUGHT LACK OF MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT FORCING PRECLUDE INTRODUCING CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS MOS TEMP GUIDANCE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP THE SERN COUNTIES IN THE 70S TODAY. NAM TEMPS LOOK A BIT COOL FOR THURSDAY GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ BRITT 825 FXUS64 KEPZ 300816 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY AND KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE BORDERLAND YESTERDAY. TODAY THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL MEAN A NOTICEABLE WARMUP AND CONTINUED DRYING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WILL DOMINATE THE LOWLANDS WITH NO STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS EXISTS. BY FRIDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL BRING DAILY STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE BORDERLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... TUESDAY ON THROUGH THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OUT WEST IS CENTERED OVER YUMA, AZ AND NOSING NW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. TODAY THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE AREA. LEE TROUGHING WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST. THE NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE DRYOUT OF OUR AIRMASS. MOST AREAS WILL STAY MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE OF STORM ACTIVITY. I'VE REMOVED ALL POPS TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SACS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IT WILL TRACK SOUTH OVER THE SACS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THEM AT BEST. WED ALL POPS ARE OUT AS THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY SNUFF OUT ANY STORM CHANCES...EVEN OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE GETTING WARMER AND THIS SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. LOWLANDS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMALS AND NEAR 100 DEGREES. THURSDAY WE COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE SEEP BACK IN UNDER THE HIGH TO GET SOME BETTER CUMULUS IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. I'VE RE-INTRODUCED SOME WEAK POPS...BUT CHANCES ARE MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY. THE GFS NOW TRIES TO KEEP THE HIGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES LOW...BUT AGAIN JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE TRAPPED IN THE DIRTY-ING HIGH TO WARRANT MINIMAL POPS. NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE MAKES A MOVE BACK EAST. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL REINTRODUCE THE REGION TO BETTER MOISTURE AND THUS A RETURN OF POPS FOR ALL ZONES. AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE GFS FOR SUNDAY COULD RAMP UP STORM CHANCES AND STORM STRENGTHS...WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THAT FEATURE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 97 70 100 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA TX 94 65 99 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 LAS CRUCES 97 67 100 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 96 67 96 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 75 48 79 49 77 / 10 0 10 10 10 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 97 66 99 66 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 90