CHASE CASE "J"

      You've woken up this morning in a time warp. It's the late 1970's, 1980's, or early-mid 1990's. Today might be a MAJOR historical weather event. But it could also be a bust, or a non-event. You simply don't know!

      In this puzzle you'll try your hand at forecasting an "anonymous" chase day, and when the results are revealed, you'll find out what day it really was. Would you have caught the big one? Or would you have been suckered in under blue skies and a steel cap? Will you make a mistake targeting the "big one", or will you peg it right on?

      Unfortunately this puzzle does lack visual products, such as satellite and even radar. These are not available due to the expense of retrieving them from archival. Therefore you can count on doing even better in real life than these puzzles suggest!

12Z: First glance
It is 7 am. Develop a general forecast target based on all the products in this section. You will NOT commit to a chase target yet (it's assumed you followed the Day 1 discussion and are in the right area). When you are finished, simply answer the questions below. Feel free to write additional notes -- after all, these will help you critique yourself!

  • SEASON: Late spring.
  • Maximum temperature forecast
  • 12Z 300 mb plot
  • 12Z 500 mb plot
  • 12Z 700 mb plot
  • 12Z 850 mb plot
  • 1200Z surface plot
  • 12Z Soundings. Corpus Christi, TX (CRP); Del Rio, TX (DRT); Longview, TX (GGG); Stephenville, TX (SEP)Midland, TX (MAF) Norman, OK (OUN) Amarillo, TX (AMA) Monett, MO (UMN) Dodge City, KS (DDC)

    1. What are the "pros"? _________________________________________________________________________

    2. What are the "cons"? _________________________________________________________________________

    3. What region has best chase prospects? ________________________________________________________

    4. What might be the storm character? ____________________________________________________________



    16Z: Chase decision
    It is now 11 am. Motel checkout time is approaching, the maid cart is outside your door, and it's time to commit to a target. What will it be? Where will your day's plans take you?
  • 1600Z surface plot
  • 12-16Z selected hourly observation sequences by station

    1. What is your target? _______________________________________________________________________

    2. How has the situation changed, if at all? __________________________________________________

    3. Do severe prospects look better or worse? __________________________________________________



    20Z: Target refinement
    It is now 3 pm and you've arrived in your target area. You've met up with Carson Eads and his chasemobile, and he's conveniently handed you this surface chart. Use it to make any last-minute adjustments to your target area. Your new target can be NO GREATER than 100 miles from your current location (this is two-thirds the width of the Texas Panhandle).
  • 2000Z surface plot
  • 12-20Z selected hourly observation sequences by station

    1. What is your refined target? _______________________________________________________________

    2. How has the situation changed, if at all? __________________________________________________

    3. Do severe prospects look better or worse? __________________________________________________



    ** Storm results! **
    Are you ready? Do not click until you are prepared! This link contains the date of the event, the actual severe weather results, and explanations.
    >> STORM RESULTS & DISCUSSION <<



    ©2003 Tim Vasquez